Expected goals (xG) tells you how good a chance was. It cannot tell you how good the shot was, or whether the goalkeeper did well to stop it. Post-shot expected goals, or PSxG, fills that gap by rating every shot on target after it has been hit.
That makes PSxG the most useful public stat for judging goalkeepers, and a good way to spot finishers who regularly beat what their chances deserve.
What is PSxG?
PSxG is the probability that a shot on target ends up in the net, given where it is heading in the goal mouth. Models look at:
- the end location in the goal (corners are harder to save than the middle),
- the speed and height of the shot,
- the original chance quality (the pre-shot xG).
Shots that miss the target or are blocked have no PSxG, because the keeper never has to save them.
xG vs PSxG: one chance, two numbers
Tap-in, shot straight at the keeper
High xG (a great chance), low PSxG (an easy save). The finish wasted the chance.
25-yard strike into the top corner
Low xG (a poor chance), high PSxG (very hard to stop). The finish created the goal.
For shooters, PSxG minus xG shows finishing skill: positive numbers mean they place shots better than the average player from the same chances.
Judging goalkeepers: PSxG minus goals allowed
Add up the PSxG of every shot a keeper faced, then subtract the goals they conceded (excluding own goals). A positive result means they stopped more than an average keeper would have. This is fairer than save percentage, which treats a weak shot and an unstoppable one the same.
Try it: rate a keeper's season
What is a good PSxG+/- per 90?
Elite shot-stopping
+0.15 or more per 90Saving far more than an average keeper would from the same shots.
Above average
+0.05 to +0.15Consistently stopping a few more goals than expected over a season.
Average
-0.05 to +0.05Conceding roughly what the shots deserved.
Underperforming
Below -0.05Letting in more than the quality of shots faced suggests.
Rough guide bands; values vary by provider and season.
Limitations
- Small samples are noisy: one season can swing on a handful of saves.
- It ignores sweeping, crosses claimed and distribution.
- Deflections and screened shots are hard for models to judge.
- Models differ between providers; compare one source only.
Frequently asked questions
What is PSxG in football?
Post-shot expected goals (PSxG) is the chance a shot becomes a goal measured after it is struck, using where it is heading in the goal, its speed and its trajectory. Only shots on target get a PSxG value.
What is the difference between xG and PSxG?
xG rates the chance before the shot, from location and situation. PSxG rates the actual shot, so a weak shot from a great chance has low PSxG, and a shot into the top corner has high PSxG.
How is PSxG used to rate goalkeepers?
Subtract goals conceded from PSxG faced (PSxG minus goals allowed, often written PSxG+/-). A positive number means the keeper prevented goals compared with an average goalkeeper.
Do own goals and penalties count?
Own goals are normally excluded because there is no shot to rate. Penalties are usually counted but often shown separately, since they are a very different type of shot.
Is PSxG the same across data providers?
No. Each provider uses its own model, so PSxG values differ slightly. Compare goalkeepers using numbers from a single source.